Polar Vortex Forecast February 2024 Nj. For the gefsv12 forecast issued on february 12, ~90% of the individual model runs predict a reversal of the vortex winds (top, thin magenta lines), accompanied by a sharp increase in stratospheric temperature (thick. The stratospheric polar vortex did indeed rapidly weaken and warm as.
When the ao turns negative, it tends to mean that something has happened in the arctic that leads to milder conditions and a weaker polar vortex, allowing cold to meander. Negative anomalies and cooling are forecast over the autumn and winter of 2024/2025.